2024 Year in Headlines: The High Desert Is Preparing for Major Growth

While 2024 was a difficult year for housing transactions nationally, something very different was happening beneath the surface here in the High Desert.

New homebuilders were moving in. Major retailers were announcing projects. Industrial development continued expanding. And several long-awaited developments finally began moving forward.

Taken together, the headlines from 2024 point toward something bigger:

The High Desert is preparing for its next stage of growth.

New Home Construction Is Coming to the High Desert

One of the biggest stories of 2024 was the amount of new residential construction moving through the pipeline.

In Victorville, Richmond American Homes announced 238 homes, while LGI Homes broke ground on a project involving 589 lots.

Hesperia also attracted major builders, with Lennar and K. Hovnanian starting 271 homes near Ranchero Road. Lennar's arrival was particularly notable because it represented the builder's first entry into our local market.

And those projects may only be the beginning.

The long-anticipated Silverwood development moved forward after signing several major builders, including Lennar, Woodside, K. Hovnanian and Richmond American. The project is expected to eventually bring more than 15,000 homes to the area.

That's a significant amount of future housing inventory.

Major Retailers Are Following the Growth

Housing isn't the only thing changing.

Several recognizable retailers made High Desert headlines during 2024.

ALDI announced its arrival in Apple Valley. Sprouts Farmers Market broke ground in Apple Valley. Sam's Club announced plans for Hesperia.

These aren't isolated announcements.

Large retailers spend considerable time studying population, demographics, traffic patterns and future growth before committing capital to a new location.

So when multiple national brands begin making investments in the same region, it's worth paying attention.

Industrial Development Continues to Expand

Apple Valley also had more than 20 million square feet of industrial development in various stages of the development process at the time this report was prepared.

One particularly significant transaction involved Amazon purchasing approximately 183 acres for $162 million, including on- and off-site improvements.

Industrial development matters to residential real estate because jobs, infrastructure, housing and retail tend to influence one another.

People need places to work.

Workers need places to live.

Growing populations attract retailers and services.

And additional economic activity can generate still more development.

That's why these projects need to be viewed together rather than as individual headlines.

The Strange Contradiction of the 2024 Housing Market

Here's what made 2024 particularly interesting.

While all this development was taking place, the national housing market remained historically slow.

As we approached the end of 2024, existing-home sales were on pace to finish near levels not seen in almost three decades.

That sounds contradictory.

How can housing transactions be historically slow while builders, retailers and industrial developers are investing heavily in the High Desert?

Because today's transaction volume and tomorrow's growth aren't necessarily the same thing.

High mortgage rates and affordability challenges can temporarily suppress home sales without eliminating the underlying need for housing, employment, retail and infrastructure.

Developers are often looking years ahead.

More New Homes Could Change the Resale Market

For existing homeowners and real estate professionals, this may be one of the most important developments to watch.

For several years, the High Desert had relatively limited housing inventory.

More new construction changes that equation.

New-home builders can compete aggressively for buyers with incentives that an individual resale seller may have difficulty matching, including:

• Mortgage-rate buydowns
• Closing-cost assistance
• Upgrade incentives
• Large marketing budgets
• Special financing programs

That means resale sellers may eventually find themselves competing not only with the house down the street, but with professionally marketed new-home communities offering substantial buyer incentives.

Pricing and positioning will matter.

Is the High Desert Becoming the Next Major Inland Growth Market?

Mike and I have talked many times about the High Desert potentially resembling what Rancho Cucamonga looked like years before its major expansion.

No two markets develop exactly alike, so that's not a prediction that the same thing will happen here.

But the ingredients are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

New housing.

Industrial development.

National retailers.

Infrastructure investment.

Population growth.

Large master-planned communities.

Those aren't guarantees of future appreciation or transaction volume. But they are meaningful indicators that major companies are making long-term investments in this region.

What We're Watching Going Into 2025

The question isn't simply whether the High Desert will grow.

It's how that growth will affect individual communities and individual properties.

Apple Valley, Victorville, Hesperia, Adelanto and the surrounding communities aren't interchangeable. New construction, employment centers, infrastructure and retail development will affect each submarket differently.

That's why we believe understanding the High Desert at a hyper-local level is becoming increasingly important.

The housing market may have been slow in 2024.

The High Desert certainly wasn't standing still.

We're Bobby Tarango and Mike Arias with Chicago Title, and we'll continue sharing the local market information, development activity and real estate trends we're seeing throughout the High Desert.

For title and escrow questions, or to connect with our team, visit TitlesEverything.com.https://leadmarketer.com/el/assetmanager/usermedia/87308/Orignal_56_YearInHeadlines_8.5x11.jpg